The China Shipping Dilemma: Should You Ship Now or Wait?

Whether to ship from China right now is one of the most consequential decisions importers face in a tariff standoff: ship now and risk paying steep duties, or wait and risk a freight surge, port congestion, and empty shelves when demand returns. There’s no universally right answer — but there are ways to manage whichever bet you make.

Key takeaways

Waiting for a deal risks a post-deal freight surge, rate spikes, and port congestion that could delay goods for weeks.
Shipping now without a plan risks being stuck with inventory subject to high tariff rates at customs clearance.
A bonded warehouse lets you ship now and defer the duty decision until the situation becomes clearer.
Section 321 de minimis and re-export to China are two additional pressure-release valves — each with real limitations.
Goods subject to Section 232 (steel, aluminum, and derived products) are exempt from the reciprocal tariff — though the IEEPA fentanyl tariff of 20% still applies.

The core dilemma

As of April 2025, many brands were holding back shipments from China, waiting to see whether a trade deal would reduce tariff rates. The problem with waiting is structural: the moment a deal is reached, every importer who paused will try to book freight at once. That surge in demand drives up shipping rates and creates vessel loading backlogs that can cripple supply chains on both sides of the Pacific for weeks.

On the other hand, shipping without a plan and clearing customs at high tariff rates locks in a cost that may or may not be recoverable — depending on your margins, your ability to pass costs to customers, and the ultimate resolution of the trade situation.

If you ship and a deal is reached

You’ll be in a strong position. You’ll have inventory while competitors wait in the freight surge queue. You’ll have locked in shipping rates before they spike. And if Section 321 de minimis withdrawals become available again, you could use that channel to clear some goods duty-free (see below).

If you ship and no deal is reached

You’ll be holding goods that require paying high tariff rates just to clear customs and get them into commerce. Whether that’s workable depends on your product margins and your options for deferral or diversion. That’s why having a mitigation strategy in place before goods depart China matters.

Four mitigation strategies worth considering

1. Bonded warehouse

A bonded warehouse lets you store imported goods under CBP supervision without paying duties until you’re ready to enter them into U.S. commerce — or until you decide not to. If a deal is reached after your goods arrive, you can clear them at whatever rate applies then. If no deal materializes, you can re-export the goods without ever paying duties. Storage costs and time limits apply, but a bonded warehouse buys you decision-making time that a direct import doesn’t.

2. Section 321 de minimis strategy (before May 2, 2025)

As of the date of this post (April 2025), goods could still be withdrawn from a bonded facility in amounts under $800 per day per recipient, duty- and tariff-free under Section 321. This exemption was slated to be eliminated as of May 2, 2025, so the window was narrow. For a full container load, the time required to drain it through Section 321 withdrawals could span several weeks depending on total value. If this window still exists when you’re reading this, confirm current rules with your broker — de minimis rules have been in flux.

For more detail on how the China tariff landscape has evolved, see our post on the US–China trade deal and 90-day pause.

3. Canada as a backup

If you have customers in Canada, routing inventory there gives you a fallback. Goods cleared into Canada avoid U.S. import duties entirely. You’re not making U.S. sales, but you’re not paying U.S. tariffs either. This works best if you already have a Canadian customer base or can develop one — it’s a real operational commitment, not a simple paperwork diversion. Our post on expanding to Canada to reduce tariff exposure covers this in more depth.

4. Re-export to China

Goods stored in a bonded warehouse can, with your supplier’s cooperation, be re-exported back to China. This is genuinely a last resort — it means your goods make a round trip with nothing to show for it except freight and storage costs. But it’s an option if all other paths close. Having re-export language negotiated with your supplier before goods depart gives you this safety valve.

A note on Section 232 goods

If any of your products are subject to Section 232 tariffs — steel, aluminum, and products where derived value from those materials triggers Section 232 status — there’s a meaningful distinction. As of April 2025, Section 232-covered goods are exempt from the reciprocal tariff of 125%. The IEEPA fentanyl tariff of 20% still applies to Chinese-origin goods, but the elimination of the reciprocal layer is significant for affected products. If your goods straddle the Section 232 classification, that’s worth examining with your broker before you decide to hold or ship.

For a deeper look at how these tariff layers stack, see our post on duty drawback, FTZs, and your shipping options during the tariff war.

How to think about the decision

There’s no formula that gives you the right answer — it depends on your margins, your storage capacity, your customer commitments, and your read on the political situation. But the question to ask is: which outcome can my business absorb? If paying high tariff rates on this shipment would be survivable, shipping with a bonded warehouse backup is a reasonable hedge. If it would be catastrophic, waiting or diverting to Canada may be the only responsible path.

Frequently asked questions

What is a bonded warehouse and how does it help with tariff uncertainty?

A bonded warehouse is a CBP-approved facility where imported goods can be stored without paying duties. You only pay duties when you withdraw goods into U.S. commerce. If conditions change — a deal is struck, tariff rates change, or you decide to re-export — you have flexibility that a direct import doesn’t allow.

Is Section 321 de minimis still available for Chinese imports?

As of April 2025, Section 321 de minimis (the $800/day duty-free withdrawal) was still available but was set to be eliminated effective May 2, 2025. Check with your customs broker for the current status, as these rules have changed multiple times.

Can goods in a bonded warehouse be sent back to China?

Yes. Goods stored in a bonded warehouse can be re-exported without paying U.S. import duties. This requires coordination with your freight forwarder and, ideally, pre-arranged terms with your supplier for return acceptance.

Are Section 232 goods exempt from China tariffs?

As of April 2025, goods subject to Section 232 tariffs (primarily steel, aluminum, and derived products) were exempt from the reciprocal tariff of 125%. However, the separate IEEPA fentanyl tariff of 20% continued to apply. Confirm current rules with your broker, as the tariff landscape changes frequently.

What happens to freight rates if a US–China trade deal is reached?

A trade deal — or even a significant pause in tariffs — is likely to trigger a simultaneous surge in freight bookings from importers who have been waiting. That demand spike drives up shipping rates and creates vessel loading backlogs. Importers who ship before the deal have already secured their freight contracts at pre-surge rates.